458 
ABPZ20 KNHC 152312
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in organization over the
past several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the
next day or two before upper-level winds increase by mid-week. This
system is moving westward and is expected to cross into the Central
Pacific basin on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula has increased since this morning.  Although the
environment is expected to be only marginally conducive, some
gradual development is possible during the next couple of days as
the system moves west to west-northwestward over the open East
Pacific. By Wednesday, strong upper-level winds will likely prevent
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky