000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192318
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure system located about 725 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Although
upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, some development
of this system is possible during the next several days while
the disturbance drifts northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific
near the coast of Central America are associated with a surface
trough.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for some development of this disturbance over the
weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest at
about 10 to 15 mph.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown