000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152320
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Satellite wind data indicate that while the
low-level circulation has become a little better organized today, it
remains elongated.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan