000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210517
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Paine,
which has become a post-tropical cyclone to the west of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development during the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week.
This system is forecast to move generally westward at around 10 mph
for the next couple of days, and then turn northwestward and then
northward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A weak area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity.  Any development of this system should be
slow to occur while it moves slowly westward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch