000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040533
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 3 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of
low pressure extend westward for several hundred miles from the
southern coast of Mexico.  Satellite data suggest that a circulation
may be developing a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, and that the associated thunderstorm activity is showing
some signs of organization.  Upper-level winds are forecast to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form later today or Monday while the disturbance moves
slowly northward and then northwestward parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring very
heavy rains and gusty winds to southwestern Mexico.  Total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals up to 15 inches are
possible over the weekend and early next week across the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit.  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
Interests in these areas as well as the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1500 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Any
development of this system should be slow to occur while the
system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Another area of low pressure is expected to form later this week
several hundred miles south or southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain