000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021756
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 2 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorm are showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Satellite wind data, however,
indicate that the low is elongated and not well defined.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or on Monday while the
low moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of
Mexico.  Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally
heavy rain, flash floods and mud slides are likely in these areas
starting later today and continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A weak area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds.  This low is expected to move slowly eastward
then northward over the next several days as it gets caught in the
circulation of the larger tropical disturbance to the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake