000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211149
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located more than 1100 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization since
yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while it moves generally
northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan