000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152326
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extending from the Gulf of
Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  This disturbance is showing
signs of organization, and the environment appears to be favorable
for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or
so.  This system is expected to move northwestward or northward
toward the coast of Mexico, and regardless of whether or not a
tropical cyclone forms, heavy rains will spread across southwestern
Mexico over the next few days. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila