000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010503
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has recently shown little change in
organization.  Environmental conditions conditions are favorable for
a tropical depression to form later today or Thursday while the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven