000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301731
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the shower
activity has changed little in organization during the past several
hours, environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
depression to form tomorrow or Thursday while the system moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila