000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301136
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although the shower activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
to form later this week while the system moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila