000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292312
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart