000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291152
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.  Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky