000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072015
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to provide an update on the
system south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure area
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is likely producing winds to gale
force to the southeast of its center.  Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has been decreasing over the past
few hours, any increase in thunderstorm activity could result in
the formation of a tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts