000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112331
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION...AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WELL REMOVED FROM
THE SURFACE CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS WELL AS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSUE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG