000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041731
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SUN NOV 4 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ROSA...LOCATED ABOUT 1035 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME WELL 
SEPARATED FROM THE LOW.  SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
DISTURBANCE APPEARS LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS 
OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN