000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281153
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A POORLY DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES
OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND HUATABAMPITO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN