000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140537
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KRISTY...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MEXICO.  

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN