000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132333
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KRISTY...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MEXICO.  

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED ABOUT 1650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE