000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020540
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE LARGER
LOW TO ITS SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS