000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012333
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE LARGER
LOW TO ITS SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI