000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011936
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 PM PDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. 

UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO
MEXICO. WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM LACKS A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE