000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010538
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG