000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040538
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO 
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN