000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191146
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.  INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH