000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190531
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE