000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182336
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN