000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151137
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...TORRENTIAL RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI