000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142333
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA WESTWARD TO EASTERN MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...TORRENTIAL RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. 
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA