000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141132
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR AND IS PRODUCING
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN