000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132350
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR AND IS PRODUCING
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER WATER. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY NEAR
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG