000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131732
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN