000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120757
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

UPDATED...SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN