000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120542
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS LOW IS DRIFTING
NORTHWARD AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE