000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112332
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT
LIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS LOW IS DRIFTING
NORTHWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI