000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ
MEXICO IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE ON THURSDAY....AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN