000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111149
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ
MEXICO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY....AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN