000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110533
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
CHANGED LITTLE AND REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER...COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN