000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101143
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 790 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE AND REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART