000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100531
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AND IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN