000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091140
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 865 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD...AND
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...
HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART