000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081143
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 940 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA