000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080531
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG