000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052353
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN