000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051746
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE 
AREA CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO 
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN