000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050531
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE