000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210532
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN