000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111146
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATER ALONG THE EXPECTED
TRACK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN