000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110535
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 10 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LESS LIKELY DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM AND COOLER WATER
ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI