000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102332
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 10 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN